Macro Monitor: the economic backdrop for US stocks
The Macro Monitor reads the economic series that move the stock market and asks of each: does it lean supportive, neutral or hostile for stocks? Each family gets a lean, and the scored families sum into one backdrop read, every series dated and linked to its source.
The nine families
Each family card names its lean in words.
- Bond markets: the shape of the Treasury yield curve and the gap between corporate and government borrowing costs.
- Interest rates: Treasury yields from three months to ten years, nominal and inflation-protected.
- Monetary policy: the federal funds rate, the target range and the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.
- Inflation and expectations: consumer prices and core personal consumption prices, with the inflation the bond market expects.
- Leading indicators: jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, regional factory surveys and business orders.
- Coincident indicators: payrolls, the unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales and growth.
- Equity sector themes: which stock market sectors tend to fit the current backdrop.
- Market stress: volatility, oil and the broad dollar.
- Liquidity plumbing: money supply, the reverse repo facility and the Treasury cash balance.
How the backdrop is read
Each series is placed on its own recent range and trend, and a written rule turns those readings into its family's lean. Some licensed indicators show a band and a trend only, never a value.
The economic calendar
A calendar strip lists the week's high-impact releases and the next Federal Reserve decision.
Sign in with a free SentiSense account to see every series, its history and the calendar.
Frequently asked questions
Is the macro backdrop supportive or hostile for stocks?
The Macro Monitor answers in one word, supportive, neutral or hostile, from the scored families' leans on the latest run. Sign in to see today's read.
What economic data is released this week?
The Monitor's calendar lists the week's high-impact US releases, such as inflation, jobs and growth reports, with their times.
Why do some indicators show only a band?
A few indicators come from licensed surveys whose values cannot be republished. For those the Monitor shows the band, the trend, the date and a link to the source.
Describes conditions as of the dates shown. Not a forecast and not investment advice.