Adobe Eyes Q3 EPS Beat Amid AI Concerns and New CEO Search

SentiSense · Published Sep 9, 2026, 2:30 PM ET · Updated Sep 28, 2026, 2:45 AM ET

Adobe reports fiscal third-quarter earnings today after the close, with consensus EPS around $6.08 versus $5.31 a year ago, following a roughly 2.4% beat of the prior quarter's estimate. This is the company's first earnings release since naming Anil Chakravarthy its next CEO (effective December 1, 2026, as Shantanu Narayen moves to executive chair), and AI-related concerns have weighed on the stock, which is down 18% year to date in 2026. Wall Street futures ticked modestly higher ahead of both Oracle and Adobe's reports, and analysts are debating which software giant has more AI upside, with Adobe currently viewed more cautiously than Oracle.

Adobe (ADBE) is set to report third-quarter earnings today after the bell, with analysts looking for consensus EPS around $6.08, up from $5.31 a year earlier. The company beat the prior quarter's EPS estimate by about 2.4%, and Wall Street is watching whether it can repeat that beat streak tonight.

The report is Adobe's first since the board named Anil Chakravarthy as its next president and CEO, effective December 1, 2026, when longtime CEO Shantanu Narayen moves to executive chair after 18 years in the role. Shares fell roughly 6.7% on the announcement, and the stock's struggles run deeper than that single day: Adobe is down 25% in 2024, 21% in 2025 and 18% so far in 2026, as investors worry that generative AI tools could erode demand for its subscription software.

The broader market leaned cautiously higher heading into the print. Dow futures added about 213 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures rose 18 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 15 points, or 0.1%, even as the Iran conflict pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since July. Analysts are also weighing Adobe's embedded generative and agentic AI tools against Oracle (ORCL)'s infrastructure-driven AI growth story, with sentiment currently reading more cautious on Adobe's path than on Oracle's. Adobe shares were trading around $250.18, down 1.8% on the day, ahead of the release.

Chakravarthy's task once he formally takes over could be convincing investors that Adobe's AI push can outpace cheaper rivals, but tonight's numbers land first. A clean beat may ease some of the AI-erosion narrative that has pressured the stock for two years, while a miss or soft guidance could deepen doubts about the timing of the leadership transition. Either way, Adobe's AI trajectory versus Oracle's could stay a multi-quarter debate rather than something a single earnings print settles. This is market analysis, not investment advice.