American Airlines Forecasts a 2026 Loss as a $4.6 Billion Fuel Bill Swamps Record Q3 Revenue

AAL reported record third-quarter revenue on Oct. 22 and still lost money, because its fuel bill rose faster than its fares. Revenue reached $16.34 billion, up 19.3% from a year earlier, while fuel expense climbed 67.5% to $4.64 billion as the average price paid rose to $3.85 a gallon from $2.37. The result was a GAAP net loss of $269 million, or $0.41 per share, and an adjusted net loss of $182 million, or $0.28 per share. That adjusted figure came in better than analyst forecasts, which ranged from a $0.33 to a $0.36 per-share loss.

The bigger change is the outlook. American now expects an adjusted loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per share for 2026 and a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of $0.50 to $1.10 per share. In July its full-year range ran from a $0.65 loss to a $0.65 profit, so the guidance has moved entirely into loss territory. The company expects fourth-quarter fuel near $4.70 a gallon, adding about $2.8 billion of fuel expense versus a year earlier, even as it guides revenue up 19.5% to 22.5%. CEO Robert Isom said the quarter would have been "solidly profitable" but for the fuel spike, and called the top-line result "the strongest year-over-year revenue growth in my career."

The comparison with rivals is what makes the print stand out. Unlike DAL and UAL, American could not turn a profit this quarter; United, which reported on Oct. 20, posted net income of $1.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.54. American's capacity grew 4.2% and total unit revenue rose 14.5%, which suggests demand and pricing were not the problem. The gap is cost and balance sheet: American carries about $36.4 billion of total debt against $11.8 billion of available liquidity.

The market reaction was calmer than the guidance cut. AAL traded about 2.8% higher at $12.58 as of 1:22 p.m. ET on Oct. 22, per SentiSense market data. What to watch next: whether jet fuel prices ease from the roughly $4.70 a gallon the company is planning around, whether fare strength holds into the holiday quarter, and whether the fourth quarter lands inside the $0.50 to $1.10 loss range.