American Express Stock in Focus Amid Interest Rate Volatility Caused by Iran War

AXP is drawing attention from analysts as a resilient financial stock amid interest rate volatility tied to the ongoing Iran conflict. Unlike traditional banks that derive most revenue from interest income, American Express generates roughly 80% of its revenue from fee-based sources including merchant fees and annual card charges, providing a structural buffer against rate swings.

The company delivered record card-fee revenue of $10 billion in 2025 and has set FY 2026 EPS guidance at $17.30–$17.90. American Express also raised its quarterly dividend by approximately 16%, signaling management confidence in continued earnings growth despite geopolitical uncertainty that has pushed Brent crude above $112 per barrel.

However, AXP shares are down roughly 19% year-to-date as broader market turbulence weighs on financial stocks. While the fee-based model may insulate the company from direct rate exposure, a prolonged conflict could dampen consumer spending on premium card services — the engine of Amex's growth.