UBS and Guggenheim lift Autodesk targets even as the stock sells off on soft guidance

Two firms lifted their ADSK price targets on Friday morning, the day after Autodesk beat on its fiscal second quarter of fiscal 2027 and then guided the next quarter below the Street. UBS went to $325 from $290 and Guggenheim to $283 from $277, and both maintained Buy rather than upgrading. Guggenheim's move is its second in roughly eight days, having already gone to $277 from $245 on August 20 ahead of the print.

The gap between the target action and the tape is the story. Autodesk's revenue came in at $2.05 billion against about $2.01 billion expected and non-GAAP earnings at $3.30 against $3.12, and full-year revenue and billings guidance both went up. But fiscal Q3 earnings guidance of $3.04 to $3.09 landed under a $3.14 consensus, and the full-year free-cash-flow midpoint was cut by $25 million, which is what sent the stock down about 5% in extended trading.

Read those raises as model updates rather than conviction changes. Neither firm changed its rating, and a target raise that leaves the rating alone typically reflects a higher revenue base flowing through a valuation model, not a new view of the business. A third target change circulating with this cluster could not be corroborated against a primary note and is left out here.

SentiSense has Autodesk at $259.61, down 4.1%, and our consensus band at $220.50 low, $314.57 average and $456.00 high across 34 analysts, rating STRONG_BUY on a 30 buy, 6 hold, zero sell split across 36 rated. Our analyst-actions feed had not yet ingested Friday's target changes at the time of writing, so the $314.57 average does not include them. What to watch is whether the average target drifts up toward the UBS mark or the Hold contingent grows if free cash flow stays soft.

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