Analysts Offer Mixed Outlook for Walmart's FY2026 Earnings

Sell-side coverage of WMT heading into fiscal 2026 is unusually split: Erste Group has raised its outlook on stronger earnings momentum, while Zacks Research issued a negative Q2 forecast that flags margin and traffic risk. The divergence captures the wider debate about how resilient the U.S. consumer remains as discretionary spending softens.

Consensus still anchors to an approximately 8% gain in first-quarter net income, driven by grocery share, advertising, and Walmart+ membership tailwinds. Bulls point to operating leverage from automation and the maturing e-commerce business; bears flag tariff exposure, mix shift toward lower-margin essentials, and the share-defense cost of competing with AMZN on delivery speed.

The print is a clean read on whether the U.S. consumer is bending or breaking. Watch comp-store sales, general-merchandise unit trends, and guidance commentary on tariff pass-through, those will set the tone for the rest of retail earnings season.

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