Archer Aviation Stock in a Rough Spot, but Analysts See Growth Potential

ACHR shares have fallen more than 70% from their all-time high of $17.14 (set in February 2021) to trade under $5, with the stock recently changing hands near $4.75 to $5, close to its 52-week low of $4.61. The eVTOL air-taxi developer has missed its own early production targets badly: it promised 10 Midnight aircraft in 2024 and 250 in 2025, but had built only two test aircraft and one full-scale Midnight unit by the original 2024 deadline.

The selloff matters because it has compressed Archer's valuation to a fraction of rival Joby Aviation's, even as both companies remain pre-revenue on commercial passenger service. Archer now trades around 7 times projected 2028 sales versus Joby's roughly 19 times, despite Archer holding a larger stated order backlog. That gap is the crux of the bull case Wall Street analysts are making: the business, not just the stock, may be undervalued relative to peers.

On the fundamentals, Archer ended 2025 with a $6 billion backlog covering roughly 1,200 aircraft orders, and Stellantis, its largest strategic investor, remains committed to helping scale production once the FAA fully certifies commercial flights. Analysts polled by S&P Global currently rate the stock a consensus "Buy," with price targets averaging around $11 to $12, implying substantial upside from current levels if the company executes. Revenue is projected to ramp from roughly $9.5 million in 2026 to over $428 million by 2028 as certification milestones convert backlog into deliveries. Some analysts, however, don't expect full type certification until 2028, later than the company's own initial-operations target for 2026, which could delay that revenue inflection.

Separately, two Archer directors, Fred M. Diaz and Deborah Diaz, each received routine equity awards of 40,983 restricted stock units in late June, tied to standard board deferred-compensation vesting rather than a discretionary sale or purchase. It is not a signal of insider sentiment either way.

What to watch: the pace of FAA certification milestones (the main gating factor for revenue recognition), whether Stellantis follows through on production scale-up commitments, and whether the stock can hold its recent support near $4.60 to $4.75. A further slide toward the 52-week low, or a certification delay beyond 2026 guidance, could pressure shares further, while any acceleration in FAA sign-off could re-rate the stock toward analyst targets.