Archer Aviation Stock in a Rough Spot, but Analysts See Growth Potential

ACHR shares have fallen more than 70% from their all-time high of $17.14 (set in February 2021) to trade under $5, with the stock recently changing hands near $4.75 to $5, close to its 52-week low of $4.61 . The eVTOL air-taxi developer has missed its own early production targets badly: it promised 10 Midnight aircraft in 2024 and 250 in 2025, but had built only two test aircraft and one full-scale Midnight unit by the original 2024 deadline .

The selloff matters because it has compressed Archer's valuation to a fraction of rival Joby Aviation's, even as both companies remain pre-revenue on commercial passenger service. Archer now trades around 7 times projected 2028 sales versus Joby's roughly 19 times, despite Archer holding a larger stated order backlog . That gap is the crux of the bull case Wall Street analysts are making: the business, not just the stock, may be undervalued relative to peers.

On the fundamentals, Archer ended 2025 with a $6 billion backlog covering roughly 1,200 aircraft orders, and Stellantis, its largest strategic investor, remains committed to helping scale production once the FAA fully certifies commercial flights . Analysts polled by S&P Global currently rate the stock a consensus "Buy," with price targets averaging around $11 to $12, implying substantial upside from current levels if the company executes . Revenue is projected to ramp from roughly $9.5 million in 2026 to over $428 million by 2028 as certification milestones convert backlog into deliveries . Some analysts, however, don't expect full type certification until 2028, later than the company's own initial-operations target for 2026, which could delay that revenue inflection .

Separately, two Archer directors, Fred M. Diaz and Deborah Diaz, each received routine equity awards of 40,983 restricted stock units in late June, tied to standard board deferred-compensation vesting rather than a discretionary sale or purchase. It is not a signal of insider sentiment either way.

What to watch: the pace of FAA certification milestones (the main gating factor for revenue recognition), whether Stellantis follows through on production scale-up commitments, and whether the stock can hold its recent support near $4.60 to $4.75. A further slide toward the 52-week low, or a certification delay beyond 2026 guidance, could pressure shares further, while any acceleration in FAA sign-off could re-rate the stock toward analyst targets.