ASML posts record Q3 sales and lifts its 2026 outlook as AI demand outruns capacity

ASML reported record third-quarter 2026 net sales of €11.66 billion on October 14, with a gross margin of 57.5% and net income of €4.96 billion, or basic earnings of €12.95 per share. Sales landed toward the high end of the company's own guidance range.

The outlook moved up. ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion, lifting the bottom of the range from €43 billion, and guided fourth-quarter sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion at a gross margin of about 57%. During the quarter the company repurchased €4.1 billion of shares under its 2026 to 2028 buyback program, and it declared an interim dividend of €1.88 per share.

The bigger message was capacity. ASML said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not meet demand, that it is investigating capacity beyond the 30% increase it already plans, and that some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030. Euronews summed it up as a record quarter from a company that cannot keep up with AI-driven demand for chip tools.

Shares rose more than 3% in Amsterdam on the morning of the release, after the US-listed shares closed down 1.86% on October 13 amid a broader chip selloff. Some early coverage described a revenue miss, but that rested on a dollar conversion; in euros, sales came in near consensus. Jefferies called the capacity raise broadly expected and cautioned that valuation multiples may cyclically contract further. The test from here is whether ASML can add capacity fast enough to convert demand that already reaches into 2030.