AST SpaceMobile Misses Q3 Revenue Estimates, Targets 45 Satellites by Mid-2027; UBS Cuts Target to $43

ASTS reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $42.3 million, driven by gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestones, below a consensus of about $46 million cited by Goldesel; the company reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million. The net loss attributable to common stockholders was $132.4 million, and AST ended September with about $3.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, per its 8-K. Capital spending was about $310 million in the quarter, below the company's $350 million to $425 million guidance, but management guided fourth-quarter capex to $400 million to $500 million, after $1.15 billion of spending over the first nine months.

The deployment timeline has slipped again. The company now targets approximately 45 BlueBird satellites in orbit by the middle of 2027, after earlier projecting 45 to 60 operational satellites this year. It also unveiled Blacklift, its own 20-ton reusable rocket able to carry up to five BlueBirds per launch, with initial launches planned for late 2028. UBS analyst Christopher Schoell cut his price target to $43 from $78 and kept a Neutral rating, citing constellation scaling delays, uncertainty around U.S. government spending after the mid-term elections, and the added risk of building an in-house heavy-lift rocket.

The stock closed down 8.67% at $33.69 on November 10, its third straight weekly decline, leaving it down about 76% from its $133.86 May high. UBS still sees AST as a long-term player in space-to-cellular broadband thanks to its technology and carrier relationships. Near-term catalysts are the shipment of BlueBirds 17 through 19 by the end of November for a Blue Origin launch expected in early 2027, and whether fourth-quarter revenue keeps the company within its full-year range.