BAE Systems lifts 2026 cash flow forecast to £3bn as orders surge to £33bn

BAE Systems raised its 2026 free cash flow guidance to about £3 billion from more than £2 billion in its November trading update on Thursday, November 12. The company credits the upgrade in part to advance payments from customers and says it is trading well in the second half. Stockopedia's headline says the shares rose on the news.

The new figure compares with a consensus of about £2.3 billion, according to Jefferies, and with £2.2 billion of free cash flow in 2025. BAE says the guidance excludes any material customer advances it may receive in the rest of the year.

Orders booked so far in 2026 total £33 billion, with more agreements expected before year-end. That is order intake, not the size of the backlog. Second-half awards include about £4.3 billion for the Dreadnought submarines, about £1.6 billion for the Global Combat Air Programme, about £1.5 billion from MBDA-related work, and about $1.0 billion of US munitions funding. Sales, EBIT and EPS guidance is unchanged: growth of 8% to 10%, 10% to 12% and 11% to 13% in constant currency.

Jefferies called Electronic Systems strength reassuring but said meaningful margin recovery in Maritime, where the Type 26 frigate programme is at an early stage, will take time. Investors may watch full-year results on February 19, 2027.