Bank of America downgrades Nike, cuts price target to $30 amid weak demand

Bank of America downgraded NKE to Underperform from Neutral on September 25, 2026 and cut its price target to $30 from $47, saying Nike's turnaround is taking longer to show up in the numbers . The shares slipped about 1% in premarket trading Friday on the call .

The estimate cuts carry most of the message. BofA lowered its fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings-per-share forecasts to $1.43 and $1.87 and now expects Nike's sales to remain under pressure through fiscal 2027, which pushes a broader rebound out another year . The bank pointed to weaker consumer purchases of established footwear styles and caution among retailers, and said future earnings may depend more on gross margin improvement and cost reduction than on top-line growth .

China is a second drag. Nike's revenue in Greater China declined 17% in the latest quarter, and changes to its e-commerce distribution strategy could weigh on near-term sales . For context, Nike reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $46.4 billion, little changed from the prior year, while net income fell 3% to $3.1 billion . BofA's fiscal 2027 forecast also implies a 107% dividend payout ratio, meaning projected earnings would not fully cover the current dividend .

The timing matters: the downgrade lands days before Nike's confirmed October 1 quarterly report (after the close), where consensus expects EPS of about $0.44, so the print will be read directly against BofA's thesis. The items to watch are whether management's commentary on its classic franchises and Greater China supports or rebuts the call for negative sales growth through fiscal 2027, and how margins trend as the company leans on cost control.