BofA's Hartnett Declares Commodities the Trade of the Decade, Challenging U.S. Stock Dominance

Bank of America Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett made a bold call on April 10, 2026, arguing that commodities will displace U.S. stocks as the dominant asset class for the rest of the 2020s. Commodities have surged more than 30% since the start of 2025, significantly outpacing the S&P 500, and Hartnett sees the trend as structural rather than cyclical. His asset ranking places commodities above the U.S. dollar, with international and small-cap equities expected to outperform U.S. large-caps.

Hartnett's thesis rests on three converging forces: intensifying geopolitical competition for critical resources, sustained fiscal expansion by major governments, and a weakening U.S. dollar eroding the appeal of dollar-denominated assets. He framed the outlook with the striking observation that "whoever controls chips, rare earths, minerals, and oil will win the AI race". The commodity complex tracked by ETFs like DBC has become his preferred vehicle for what he calls the "anything but bonds" trade, viewing it as the most reliable inflation and risk hedge for the decade ahead.

BAC has a significant presence in commodities trading, meaning a structural shift toward commodity markets could reshape its revenue mix. Meanwhile, the bank is also reportedly exploring changes to its funding mix and fee structures, potentially reducing reliance on mortgage products in favor of higher-yielding instruments. Investors watching broader market rotation will want to track whether institutional flows begin reflecting Hartnett's secular commodity thesis in coming quarters.