Bitcoin Expected Near $75K in 2026 as Coinbase Eyes Crypto‑Friendly Policy Boost

Prediction markets on Kalshi expect Bitcoin to end 2026 near $75,000, well below the bullish sell-side targets of $100,000 from Standard Chartered and $125,000-plus from Bernstein . The gap between a market-implied number and a published analyst target is itself the story: one is where traders are willing to put money, the other is where a research desk argues fair value sits.

The context for that gap is a recent 25% run in Bitcoin driven by concerns over Treasury bonds and inflation, not by fresh crypto-specific demand. The more durable headwind is allocation: investors have continued to favour AI equities over cryptocurrencies, which is the reason the source frames the $75,000 level as the more reasonable expectation rather than the sell-side marks .

For COIN the read-through is second-order but real. Higher crypto prices generally improve the exchange's revenue prospects, and separate commentary notes the current U.S. administration is working on crypto-friendly legislation that could benefit Coinbase and its peers . A market that consolidates near $75,000 rather than running to six figures still supports exchange volumes; it simply removes the mania premium.

Two things are worth tracking. The first is whether the legislative work produces an actual bill rather than continued signalling, since regulatory clarity is the variable Coinbase has least control over. The second is the AI-versus-crypto allocation trade, because the same rotation that capped this rally could reverse quickly if the macro backdrop that drove flows into Treasuries and AI names changes.

Related Stocks

• COIN