Brent Falls Below $90 for First Time Since August as Trump Signals Restraint on Iran

Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August 31, as traders leaned into President Donald Trump's signals that he will hold off on new military strikes against Iran. Brent futures were down 2.8% at $89.95 by 10:04 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate slipped 2.6% to $84.56, according to Investing.com.

The move extends a steep slide. Brent settled down $5.75, or 5.85%, at $92.57 on Monday and lost more than $7 a barrel in post-settlement trade, after a 16% drop the previous week that was its steepest weekly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Sunday Trump said he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progressed. The benchmark now sits about 23% below the six-month high of $118 it touched on October 30.

Supply is adding to the pressure. JPMorgan estimated the global surplus at around 1.4 million barrels per day in October, and a Reuters survey found OPEC output rose that month. Shipping risk has not gone away: both countries reported vessels hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco's corporate office.

What to watch: whether US-Iran talks hold, tanker traffic through Hormuz, and how producers such as XOM and CVX absorb a lower crude price. A renewed attack on shipping or a breakdown in talks could quickly reverse part of the decline.