China's Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion for a Second Straight Year as October Exports Jump 35%

China's trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, exceeding $1 trillion for a second straight year, customs data released Tuesday showed. The country is on track to surpass last year's record surplus of about $1.2 trillion, and CNBC noted it is the fastest China has ever reached the $1 trillion mark.

October exports surged 35.2% from a year earlier, ahead of the 33.5% expected in a Reuters poll cited by CNBC. Imports grew even faster, up 41.6% against expectations of about 32%, which narrowed the monthly surplus to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September. The AI infrastructure build-out is a large part of the story: semiconductor exports rose 137.1% in value from a year earlier, and auto exports climbed 37.6%.

The gains reach China's largest trading partners. Exports to the US grew 32.9% in October from a low base after last year's tariffs, and the January to October surplus with the US was about $266.5 billion. Exports to the EU rose 24.3% in October, with the ten-month surplus with the bloc above $310 billion.

What to watch: a surplus of this size keeps trade balance at the center of US and European policy toward Beijing, raising the odds of new tariff or export-control friction. Forecasters expect the pace to cool, with Citi projecting export growth slowing to 8% in 2027, and AP notes the export boom could be vulnerable to setbacks in the AI industry. For markets, the data matters most for chip supply chains, shipping and companies with heavy China exposure.