Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Jumps 16% as Q3 EBITDA Hits $612 Million and 2027 Outlook Tops $4 Billion

Cleveland-Cliffs posted adjusted earnings of $0.28 per share for the third quarter, ahead of the $0.24 consensus compiled by MarketBeat and 24/7 Wall St. (FactSet's figure, cited by the Motley Fool, was $0.21). Revenue rose about 18.5% from a year earlier to $5.61 billion but missed the roughly $5.69 billion analysts expected. Adjusted EBITDA reached $612 million, up from $286 million in the second quarter and $143 million a year ago, and GAAP net income was $165 million.

The outlook did the heavy lifting. The company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to approximately $715 million and said adjusted EBITDA in 2027 should exceed $4 billion, above the roughly $3.3 billion it had pointed to in July. It reaffirmed its target of net debt below 2.5 times EBITDA by mid-2027. The Canadian Stelco operation turned EBITDA positive, though some of its galvanizing lines remain idled.

Investors rewarded the print: shares rose as much as 20% early on Oct. 19 and closed up about 16% at $14.10, per SentiSense market data. Peers NUE and STLD edged higher on the day. Analyst actions in the sources predate the report, so the reaction reflects the results rather than rating changes.

What to watch: whether higher steel prices and tariff protection hold long enough to deliver the $715 million fourth quarter, and how quickly the stronger cash flow brings leverage down toward the 2.5 times target.