Copper set back-to-back LME records, and the tariff driving it has not actually been imposed yet

Copper set records on consecutive sessions. Benchmark three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.8% to $14,533 a tonne on Monday, surpassing the previous record of $14,527.50 set in January 2026, then closed at $14,510 . On Tuesday the metal touched an intraday all-time high of $14,694 a tonne and was last trading up 1.1% at $14,673 . Bloomberg puts the metal's advance at 17% over the past year, though sources differ on whether that figure describes a trailing-twelve-month or a year-to-date window, so it is worth reading as an approximate magnitude rather than a precise measure .

The immediate driver is a tariff that does not yet exist, which is an important distinction the headlines tend to blur. Refined copper was carved out of the 50% duty imposed in July 2025, which applies to semi-finished and derivative products. A proposal to tariff refined copper at 15% from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, has not been enacted, and the Commerce Department recommendation due June 30 remains unpublished more than two months past its deadline . What is moving the price is American buyers accumulating stockpiles in anticipation of that decision, pulling metal toward the United States and draining exchange inventory elsewhere . LME stocks have fallen to a near five-year low, Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks are at their lowest since 2024, and Comex holdings are rising sharply, which is the signature of relocation rather than consumption .

Underneath the trade positioning sits a genuinely tight physical market. Bloomberg attributes the structural squeeze to aging mines struggling to keep pace with demand from data centers, renewable energy projects and power grids, and Chile's shipments sank to their lowest in over a year in August . Reuters reports Chile posted its weakest second-quarter output in at least 19 years with a 2.6% annual decline projected, while Morgan Stanley has flagged the possibility of the first annual decline in global copper mine output since 2017 . Citigroup's Tom Mulqueen forecasts $15,000 a tonne by year-end .

The equity expression has run further than the metal. FCX is up 44% year to date and rose 7.2% intraday, with SCCO and Teck Resources each up roughly 45% on the year . The operating leverage explains why: Reuters notes each 10-cent rise in the copper price is worth roughly $390 million in annual EBITDA to Freeport-McMoRan. SentiSense's own quote had FCX at $76.97, up 5.8% on the day, alongside a signal worth weighing against the enthusiasm: Freeport's unit net cash cost per pound of copper rose 74.3% year over year from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. Higher prices are lifting a cost base that is climbing quickly too. The clearest catalyst to watch is the Commerce Department report, since a decision either way removes the anticipation that is currently doing the work.