Corteva Shares Plunge About 20% After Q3 Miss and Guidance Cut on Brazil Weakness

CTVA reported third-quarter results on November 11 that missed expectations, with operating earnings of $0.06 per share against about 9 to 10 cents expected and revenue of $1.59 billion versus roughly $1.76 billion (Zacks via TradingView, ). Adjusted pro forma operating EBITDA fell 17% to $222 million. It was Corteva's first quarterly report as a crop-protection company after spinning off its seed business as Vylor.

Brazil was the problem. Latin America organic sales fell 31%, with volume down 24% and price down 7%, even as new-product volumes rose 20%. The CEO said, "We did not anticipate the magnitude nor the speed of the deterioration we have experienced in Brazil" (Reuters via Investing.com). On the call, management said elevated channel inventory in Brazil would cost about $100 million of full-year EBITDA and that sellout there was down about 12% year to date, while insisting it had not lost share at the farm gate.

Corteva set full-year adjusted pro forma operating EBITDA guidance at $1.1 billion to $1.125 billion and operating EPS at $0.76 to $0.80 (8-K). Reuters described that as a cut from a prior core-profit outlook of roughly $1.3 billion, and the EPS range sits below the $1.63 LSEG consensus Reuters cited; Finimize put LSEG's EBITDA expectation at $1.82 billion. Because the older ranges covered the combined company, a straight comparison with the pre-spin guidance overstates the cut.

The shares fell about 20% to $9.68 in midday trading on November 12, per Reuters, with intraday declines reported as deep as 23%. Analysts at Oppenheimer and KeyBanc focused on how far results deviated from the outlook Corteva gave in mid-September. The next markers are Brazilian channel inventory, farmer credit conditions and whether the new guidance holds through the fourth quarter.