Dow jumps 624 points as Waller says he would lean toward holding rates, halving September hike odds

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to 53,686.11 on September 3, 2026, its best day since August 4, after Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Reuters he would be inclined to support holding rates if disinflation continues. The S&P 500 added 1.06% to 7,747.71 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.40% to 26,584.06. Market-implied odds of a September rate hike fell to 50.3% from 63%, still close to a coin flip. Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year at 4.748% and the 2-year at 4.332%, while oil rose rather than fell.

U.S. equities rallied broadly on September 3, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 624.16 points, or 1.18%, to 53,686.11, the S&P 500 up 81.11 points, or 1.06%, to 7,747.71, and the Nasdaq Composite up 366.23 points, or 1.40%, to 26,584.06. For the Dow and the S&P 500 it was the best session since August 4.

The catalyst was an interview rather than a speech. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told Reuters that "three-month inflation has fallen steadily from 4.76% in February" and that "if this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting". That language is conditional, and it is worth being precise about what it moved: market-implied odds of a September rate HIKE fell to 50.3% from 63% the previous day. The debate going into the session was hike versus hold rather than the more familiar hold versus cut, and after Waller's remarks a hike remains roughly a coin flip. Waller also said inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed's 2% target.

The rates market moved with him. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than four basis points to 4.748%, the 2-year fell more than five basis points to 4.332% and the 30-year eased to 5.233%. Crude, however, did not cooperate with the risk-on story: WTI October futures rose 0.81% to $92.04 and Brent traded above $95, so this was a rally driven by the rates path rather than by any relief on energy costs. Consumer discretionary led the sector table while energy lagged. Other data that day was firm, with the August ISM services index at 55.4 against a 54.1 forecast and initial jobless claims of 206,000 against 205,000 expected.

Single-name action was concentrated in the AI and crypto-linked complex, with Snowflake up 16.6%, Robinhood up 16.6%, Coinbase up 10.1% and NVDA up 1.8%, while AVGO fell 2.7% after its own results. The immediate test arrives quickly: August payrolls were due the following morning, with forecasts of 56,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. A hot print would put the hike back on the table that Waller's conditional language only half removed.

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