Enphase Q3 Misses Estimates, Guides Q4 Revenue to $225M-$255M and Shares Plunge After Hours

ENPH reported Q3 2026 revenue of $293.3 million and GAAP net income of $23.4 million, or $0.17 per diluted share. On an adjusted basis EPS was $0.41, below consensus estimates of $0.47 to $0.51 depending on the data provider, and revenue trailed consensus of roughly $304.6 million to $306.1 million. Shares fell 12.9% to $26.04 immediately after the results, and later reports put the decline at about 15% to 16%.

The outlook did more damage than the quarter. Enphase guided fourth-quarter revenue to a range of $225.0 million to $255.0 million, below Q3 revenue, assuming sell-through declines 10% from Q3. The $240 million midpoint sits about 19.6% below the $298.6 million consensus. The company's own release describes the setup: global sell-through rose only about 1% sequentially against an expectation of roughly 10%, U.S. sell-through was down 35% year over year, and European sell-through fell 12% from Q2. Management pointed to higher interest rates and the expiration of the Section 25D federal tax credit as headwinds for core U.S. residential demand.

Some details temper the picture. GAAP EPS was reduced by $0.15 from an impairment on investments, GAAP operating income was only $6.5 million, free cash flow was negative $11.4 million, and cash and marketable securities stood at $931.8 million. The company is pointing to its IQ SST data-center power product, with customer pilots targeted for 2027 and commercial shipments for 2028.

The one analyst action in the cited coverage predates the print: GLJ Research, rated Sell, cut its price target to $21.49 from $24.47 on Monday, the day before the Tuesday after-close print, according to MarketBeat. Investors may watch for post-earnings target revisions, whether U.S. sell-through stabilizes after the 25D expiration, and whether Q4 revenue lands near the $240 million midpoint.