Equifax Stock Surges About 11% on Mortgage Revenue Jump, Even as Full-Year Revenue Guidance Is Cut

EFX shares rose about 11% on October 20 after the company reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.693 billion, up 10%, and adjusted EPS of $2.26, ahead of the $2.20 analysts expected. U.S. mortgage revenue grew 15% despite what management called a much weaker mortgage market in the latter half of the quarter. Revenue matched forecasts, so the EPS beat and the mortgage strength drove the reaction.

The guidance was less rosy than the stock move suggests. Equifax reduced its full-year 2026 revenue guidance at the midpoint to $6.661 billion, from $6.75 billion before, and its fourth-quarter revenue growth range of 3.5% to 5.4% and adjusted EPS range of $2.07 to $2.17 were both below analyst expectations. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $8.50 was in line with the $8.49 consensus.

Margins and AI were part of the bull case. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 33.1%, up from 32.7% a year earlier. Excluding FICO mortgage royalties, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points to 35.2%, according to Investing.com, which did not attribute that gain specifically to AI. The same article reported that AI-driven productivity initiatives contributed $150 million of cost savings, and Yahoo Finance said management expects AI savings to help recover most of the gross margin lost on weaker mortgage revenue. Diversified markets revenue grew 8%, and management said its government team signed state agency agreements totaling over $550 million in annual contract value, mainly SNAP and CMS.

Investors may watch whether mortgage volumes stabilize, whether the lower revenue guide proves conservative, and whether AI cost savings keep protecting earnings.