Exxon forecasts strong LNG demand, boosting 2030 sales as US set to supply one-third of global LNG

Exxon Mobil said it expects U.S. liquefied natural gas supply to reach roughly 30% of the global LNG market by 2030, a projection from Peter Clarke, the company's senior vice president of LNG, speaking at an energy industry forum. Alongside that outlook, XOM raised its long-term LNG sales forecast to 50 million tons annually by 2030, up from an earlier forecast of 40 million tons, citing confidence in continued global demand growth.

Exxon Mobil shares gained following the announcement. The stock closed at $166.11 on September 11, giving the company a market value near $688.50 billion and sitting within a 52-week range of $110.39 to $176.41. Analyst price targets moved in different directions on the update: Barclays cut its target to $177 from $182, while Piper Sandler raised its target to $185 from $158, and the consensus target across covering analysts stands at $167.45. Neither move was reported as a change to the firms' underlying ratings, so both reflect valuation adjustments rather than upgrades or downgrades.

The reaction came even as Exxon's most recent quarterly results were mixed: adjusted EPS of $3.52 came in below the $3.56 consensus estimate, while revenue of $116.02 billion topped the $109.94 billion consensus. That split between a revenue beat and an EPS miss may help explain why analysts read the LNG outlook differently even as the stock advanced.

Reaching the projected 30% global share could depend on how quickly the United States can keep expanding liquefaction and export capacity through the rest of the decade, and Exxon's raised sales forecast signals the company expects to capture a growing share of that expansion. Investors may watch whether the gap between Barclays' and Piper Sandler's price targets narrows as more data on demand and project execution emerges.