FICO shares tumble about 13% as FHFA's Pulte vows more credit-score competition

Fair Isaac (FICO) shares fell sharply on Monday, October 26, closing about 13% lower at $708.07 by SentiSense's delayed quote. Yahoo Finance reported a drop of more than 13% that accelerated after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte posted on X: "We are taking more action this week to ensure competition is real and not fake, or manipulated". MT Newswires had the stock down roughly 15% in afternoon trading.

The trigger came late Friday, when FICO said it would hold its wholesale mortgage score price at $10 through tri-merge resellers for lenders that join its new Preferred Program, a bundle of Classic FICO and FICO Score 10T at flat year-over-year pricing. The program is not exclusive, so lenders can still pull a VantageScore, and FICO has not disclosed its other 2027 mortgage score pricing. After several years of hikes, investors read the hold as a defensive move to protect share; a single VantageScore costs around $0.99.

Analysts cut numbers the same day. Mizuho lowered its target to $986 from $1,063 while keeping an Outperform rating, and trimmed revenue and adjusted EPS estimates for flat 2027 pricing; according to HousingWire, it had previously assumed about 5% mortgage price growth in 2027. Wells Fargo analyst Jason Haas downgraded the stock from Overweight and cut his target to $735 from $800, UBS trimmed its target to $942 from $1,100, and BMO Capital lowered its target to $897 and its fiscal 2027 EPS forecast to $44.87.

The backdrop is regulatory. Pulte has announced a unified Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan-pricing grid, and VantageScore has pledged to keep standalone 4.0 mortgage pricing at $0.99 per score through December 2028. The Preferred Program requires resellers to pull FICO on 100% of mortgage applications, per HousingWire, which makes lender enrollment the key test. Investors may watch what action the FHFA takes this week, enrollment levels, and any disclosure of FICO's remaining 2027 pricing.