FICO Shares Plunge 26.5% After FHFA Puts VantageScore on the Same Mortgage Pricing Grid

Fair Isaac (FICO) closed at $617.87 on Tuesday, Sept 29, down $223.02 or 26.52%, in what several outlets described as its worst one-day decline since 1989. The stock had already dropped about 8% after hours on Monday and was down roughly 20% before the open. At the close it was about 65% below its all-time high.

The trigger was a Monday evening post on X from FHFA Director Bill Pulte: "Fannie and Freddie are hereby moving to ONE PRICING GRID with VantageScore joining the existing FICO Classic pricing grid." That removes the 20-point downward adjustment VantageScore 4.0 carried when the GSEs first let all lenders use it in early September, a move that had already knocked FICO shares sharply lower. FHFA has not said when the unified grid takes effect. The same day, Rocket Mortgage said it will prefer VantageScore 4.0, and TransUnion said it will keep VantageScore 4.0 mortgage pricing at $0.99 per score through December 2028, against roughly $10 per score for FICO. VantageScore was created by the three major credit bureaus, and TRU, EFX and Experian also fell in premarket trading.

Analysts were split on how far the damage runs. TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg pointed out that FHFA's own grids two weeks earlier concluded VantageScore overstated credit quality by about 20 points relative to FICO, which the new unified grid contradicts. RBC kept an Outperform rating while warning about score shopping, and Barchart noted the mortgage-backed securities market still demands FICO scores for securitization, which could preserve dual-pull volumes. What to watch: the grid's effective date, how many lenders follow Rocket, and whether MBS investors keep requiring FICO.