First Solar Reaffirms 2026 Outlook as Backlog Reaches 45.1GW

FSLR reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion in net sales and $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion in adjusted EBITDA, despite second-quarter net sales of $1.06 billion that were down 4% year over year. The offsetting figure is the backlog, which stands at 45.1 GW.

That backlog is the reason a revenue decline did not move the guidance. First Solar sells contracted volume years forward, so a soft quarter reflects delivery timing rather than demand, and the order book covers a multi-year production horizon at prices already agreed.

The policy backdrop is the variable worth tracking, and it has shifted. The 45X advanced manufacturing production credit that First Solar monetizes was preserved through the 2025 reconciliation bill and runs to 2032 with a phasedown beginning in 2030, which is the single largest support to domestic module economics. Meanwhile Section 201 tariffs on imported solar panels expired on February 6, 2026, removing one layer of import protection, while the Commerce Department's Section 232 investigation into polysilicon, wafers, and cells could add new tariffs and partially replace it.

For investors the setup is a company with contracted revenue visibility and a credit-supported cost structure facing an unsettled trade regime. Watch the Section 232 outcome, module average selling prices in new bookings, and whether the backlog keeps extending at current pricing rather than at concessions.

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