Gold slides below $4,300 amid oil surge and Fed rate‑hike speculation

Gold slid below $4,300 and then $4,200 an ounce on September 28, touching its lowest level since August 5 as rising oil prices stoked inflation fears and bets on another Federal Reserve hike. Spot gold fell 3.3% to $4,146.12 in one read, and Reuters put it down 3.1% at $4,155.67, while silver dropped 5.12% to $61.02. The metal had traded in a $4,230 to $4,510 range for most of the month and remains well below January's record near $5,600.

The driver is the oil-to-rates chain. WTI and Brent both rose more than 1% at the open as tension around the Strait of Hormuz continued, and Brent is up about 70% this year. Traders read that as keeping inflation expectations firm and the Fed hawkish: markets priced roughly a 65% to 70% chance of a single October rate hike, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Invezz framed it as an oil shock that "backfires" on gold, with $4,200 as the near-term line and $4,000 as the next support if yields stay elevated.

There are offsets. Gold ETF holdings have risen about 50 tonnes so far this month, and central banks have been net buyers through the year, which traders see as a structural floor. For gold miners and bullion funds such as GLD, the next signals are this week's U.S. inflation and jobs data, any movement in Hormuz talks, and whether October hike odds firm further.