Goldman Sachs Raises December Brent Forecast to $105, Upgrades BAT and Lifts LyondellBasell, BrightSpring Targets

Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, citing "high disruption risk from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts," and lifted its 2027 average Brent forecast to $88 from $80. Even so, the new target sits below the market: Brent was trading near $108.9 on November 2 and falling about 4% on hopes for diplomacy, per OilPrice.

The bank was busy on equities too. Goldman upgraded British American Tobacco (BTI) to Buy from Neutral, pointing to growth in its Velo nicotine pouches and Vuse vapes, and German newswire dpa-AFX reported the target rising to 5,600 pence from 5,200. It raised its LYB target to $69 from $63 but kept a Sell rating, after third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1,512 million beat the $1,465 million consensus. It also lifted its BrightSpring Health (BTSG) target to $90 and maintained Buy, after the company raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $850 million to $860 million.

On rates, Goldman expects the Bank of England to raise rates by 25 basis points in February 2027, according to Reuters. A 25 basis point hike at the November 5 meeting is already widely expected, at about 92% probability per LSEG.

What to watch: whether Brent holds above Goldman's $105 target as diplomacy develops, and how BAT shares respond to the upgrade. Note that a Sell rating with a higher target, as on LyondellBasell, is not a bullish call.