Iran War Sends Oil Past $100, Rattles Global Markets

The escalating U.S.-Israel military conflict with Iran has sent oil prices surging past $100 a barrel — the first time crude has breached that level since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude spiked as high as $119 per barrel before pulling back on mixed signals from Washington, while the price at the pump has jumped 14% since the conflict began on February 28. The average U.S. gasoline price rose 51 cents per gallon in a single week, fueling consumer anxiety and Republican midterm concerns.

The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil consumption flows — remains effectively closed, suspending an estimated 140 million barrels of daily shipments. Energy stocks have been the clear beneficiaries: XOM jumped 4.7% to near its all-time high, with Wells Fargo raising its price target to $183, while CVX touched a new 52-week high of $196.76. Defense-sector names have also rallied, consistent with historical patterns showing double-digit gains during wartime.

Broader markets have been volatile but resilient. The Dow initially fell 600 points before recovering, while Asian markets bore the brunt — Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped over 5% and South Korea's KOSPI fell 6%. President Trump's remark that the war was "very complete, pretty much" triggered a sharp reversal in stocks. Morgan Stanley has warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to hotter inflation and greater market uncertainty, though the G7 is considering releasing emergency oil supplies to stabilize prices.