J.B. Hunt warns Q3 earnings drop as fuel and driver costs surge, shares tumble

SentiSense · Published Sep 16, 2026, 6:30 AM ET · Updated Sep 28, 2026, 2:45 AM ET

J.B. Hunt Transport Services issued a rare mid-quarter profit warning, telling investors third-quarter earnings will fall 5% to 10% from the second quarter on record diesel prices, a lagging fuel-surcharge recovery and higher driver recruiting costs. CFO Brad Delco put the fuel headwind at roughly $10 million and the driver spending at about $25 million more than last quarter. The stock fell 13.3% to $236.73 on 4.4 times normal volume. The decline is sequential rather than year over year, and the driver spending is framed as preparing for growth.

JBHT shares fell 13.3% to $236.73 on Wednesday after J.B. Hunt Transport Services issued a rare mid-quarter profit warning, telling investors that third-quarter earnings will land 5% to 10% below the second quarter. Volume told the same story: about 4.81 million shares changed hands against a 1.10 million average, roughly 4.4 times normal activity, per SentiSense market data.

The warning came from CFO Brad Delco at the Morgan Stanley Industrials conference. "We kind of want to be transparent with investors and give an update that in light of these costs that are sort of hitting us, we are expecting our Q2 to Q3 earnings to actually drop 5% to 10%," he said. Two cost lines drive it. Record diesel prices are creating what Delco called at least a $10 million headwind, with the national average reaching $6.31 a gallon on Wednesday, an all-time high according to AAA. Separately, recruiting, advertising, onboarding, training and sign-on bonuses for drivers are expected to add about $25 million in the third quarter versus the second.

The distinction that matters for reading this is that the decline is sequential, not year over year, and the driver spending is discretionary. Delco framed the hiring costs as preparing for growth rather than absorbing weakness, which is a very different signal from a demand-driven miss. Barclays flagged the higher costs while still pointing to a freight demand inflection, and the Zacks downgrade to hold that circulated alongside the news dates from the July second-quarter print, when the company beat with $1.91 in EPS against a $1.71 estimate on $3.50 billion of revenue, up 19.4% year over year. It is not a reaction to this warning.

Analyst targets have not caught up to the move. SentiSense consensus data puts the average target at $305.45 across 22 analysts, with a $182.00 low and a $370.00 high and a 14 buy / 8 hold / 2 sell split, all struck before Wednesday's disclosure. What to watch is whether fuel surcharges catch up to diesel in the fourth quarter, since the recovery lag rather than the fuel price itself is what converts a cost spike into an earnings hit.