JPMorgan doubles SpaceX price target to $500 as analysts lift forecasts amid AI and Starlink growth

JPMorgan raised its price target on SPCX to $500 from $240 and kept an Overweight rating the morning after SpaceX's third-quarter report. The bank now forecasts $254 billion of 2027 revenue and 10 GW of computing capacity by year-end, more than doubling its 2027 and 2028 estimates, and said it sees strategic merit in a possible SpaceX-Tesla combination, though no deal is guaranteed. The Fly identified the analyst as Doug Anmuth.

The revisions follow a quarter that cleared expectations by a wide margin. SpaceX reported revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier, and EPS of $0.35 against a $0.10 consensus, with net income of about $4.4 billion. The Super Intelligence (AI) segment brought in roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest contributor, while Connectivity delivered $5.2 billion as Starlink's consumer base reached 13.6 million. The bigger driver of the target changes was guidance: management guided first-quarter 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, against the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, set fourth-quarter capital spending at $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute, and targeted 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of compute capacity by year end.

JPMorgan was the outlier, not the pattern. Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246, Barclays to $300 from $254, Citi to $240 from $200, UBS to $230 from $210, TD Cowen to $224 from $200, Wells Fargo to $274 from $214 and Clear Street to $248 from $217, while Morgan Stanley held its $300 target. Susquehanna stayed at Neutral with a small move to $176 from $173, and Needham reaffirmed Buy at $250. SentiSense's own consensus data shows an average target of $224.81 across 31 analysts, with a range of $118 to $450, so JPMorgan's $500 sits above the top of that range.

The shares traded up 11.4% to $164.64 on Wednesday after closing at $147.79 on October 20. What to watch: whether the first-quarter guide holds as SpaceX funds a capital program of $35 billion to $40 billion in a single quarter, which MarketBeat's coverage flags alongside potential financing needs and regulatory scrutiny of Starlink as the main risks, and whether the special committees now reviewing a Tesla combination produce terms.