JPMorgan Upgrades Intel to Neutral, Keeps $85 Target After 36% Slide From June Peak

JPMorgan upgraded INTC to Neutral from Underweight on Monday, Oct. 19, leaving its price target unchanged at $85. Analyst Harlan Sur wrote that "risk/reward is more balanced at current levels" after Intel shares pulled back about 36% from their June peak, a steeper drop than the 20-25% decline across the broader chip group.

Sur's case rests on execution. He credits CEO Lip-Bu Tan with progress across client, data center, process technology and custom ASIC work, cites "strong progress in foundry yields", and expects agentic AI demand and tight leading-edge supply to support positive earnings revisions through calendar 2027. JPMorgan's 2028 EPS estimates sit about 15% above consensus. The note is not an outright bull call, though: Sur still expects server CPU share losses for a few more quarters. Intel's server x86 CPU revenue share has fallen from 77% to 53% since November 2022 and its PC CPU share from 81% to 68%, while external foundry revenue was barely $1 billion annualized in the first half of 2026 against roughly $150 billion at TSM.

The shares gained nearly 4% before the open, and MarketBeat had Intel up $2.71 at $92.56 by midday, from Friday's $89.85 close. The move came as chip stocks broadly rebounded, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 2% in a reversal of the recent semiconductor rout.

Several reports paired the upgrade with Tesla's plan to use Intel's 14A process as a foundry customer. That commitment is not new: Intel joined Elon Musk's Terafab project with SpaceX, xAI and TSLA in April, and Musk said on Tesla's April 22 first-quarter call that Tesla plans to use 14A. We found no primary source for a new Intel and Tesla agreement on Oct. 19.

The unchanged $85 target now sits about 5% below Friday's close and roughly 8% below the midday price, while SentiSense's analyst consensus averages $118.05 across 43 price targets, ranging from $80 to $200. The next test is Intel's third-quarter report, where investors will look for the earnings revisions JPMorgan expects and for any update on external foundry customers.