Lithium Americas Flags $3.83 B Thacker Pass Cost Rise, Sparks Valuation Debate

LAC raised the capital cost estimate for Phase 1 of its Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada to $3.83 billion from $2.93 billion, an increase of about $900 million, or roughly 31%. The company published the update on Nov 11, and SentiSense data show the stock closed down 12.7% in that session.

The cost drivers listed include tariffs and logistics (about $100 million), craft labor wage inflation (about $150 million), installation rates for piping, steel and equipment (about $245 million) and added contingency (about $150 million). The company says the incremental funding need is about $995 million, made up of about $650 million of its own contributions to the joint venture with General Motors and about $315 million from reserve accounts tied to the Department of Energy loan. 2026 capex guidance moved up to $1.7-2.0 billion from $1.3-1.6 billion.

Schedule is unchanged: mechanical completion is still targeted for late 2027, with ramp-up in 2028. In its third-quarter release the company said procurement was over 90% complete as of Sept 30 and reported about $1.3 billion of total cash and restricted cash.

The valuation angle comes from two automated Simply Wall St pieces republished on Yahoo Finance Canada, which put the stock at about 0.4x price-to-book against roughly 2.2x for the metals and mining group, and note a 77.1% share price fall over three years. Neither piece shows the book value behind the ratio, and they are screens, not analyst ratings.

Worth watching: how the $995 million is funded, how the joint venture ownership with General Motors and the DOE is finalized, and whether the late-2027 mechanical completion date holds.