Lululemon Sets a New 52-Week Low as the Second Guidance Cut of the Year Meets a New CEO

SentiSense · Published · Updated

Lululemon set a fresh 52-week low of $95.35 this week, the tail of a slide that began when the company cut full-year guidance for the second time this year on September 3. Revenue guidance came down to $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion and EPS to $9.48 to $9.73. Heidi O'Neill, previously a Nike president, took over as CEO on September 8, days after the cut. Sell-side opinion is split by panel: SentiSense consensus reads HOLD across 35 rated analysts, while MarketBeat's 29-brokerage panel averages Reduce.

LULU set a fresh 52-week low of $95.35 this week, against a 52-week range topping out at $225.98 and a record high of $511.29 set in December 2023. The slide is not a single-day event. It traces back to September 3, when Lululemon cut its full-year outlook for the second time this fiscal year.

The numbers behind that cut are specific. Full-year revenue guidance came down to $10.35 billion to $10.5 billion, from the $11.0 billion to $11.15 billion range set at the first cut on June 4, which had itself come down from $11.35 billion to $11.50 billion. Full-year EPS guidance fell to $9.48 to $9.73 from $10.95 to $11.15, and the third quarter was guided to a revenue decline of 10% to 11%. The quarter that produced the cut was mixed rather than uniformly bad: EPS of $2.92 beat a $1.79 consensus, but revenue of $2.42 billion missed a $2.46 billion estimate and fell 4.3% year over year, with global comparable sales down 9%.

The leadership change arrived days later, not alongside it. Heidi O'Neill, who spent more than 25 years at Nike and most recently served as its president of consumer, product and brand, was named CEO in April and took the job on September 8. She succeeds Calvin McDonald, who left at the end of January; CFO Meghan Frank and chief commercial officer Andre Maestrini ran the company as interim co-CEOs in between. So the guidance reset was set by the outgoing bench, and the new CEO inherits it rather than having authored it.

Sell-side opinion depends on which panel is read, and the two disagree. SentiSense's own consensus across 35 rated analysts is HOLD, split 1 buy, 29 hold and 5 sell, with a mean target of $105.65 against 27 analysts supplying targets. MarketBeat's 29-brokerage panel averages Reduce, split 6 sell, 22 hold and 1 strong buy, with a $111.54 mean target. Both panels sit above the current price, and neither implies much upside. Lululemon is not sliding alone: Nike also set a multi-year low this month at $36.21.

What would change the picture is evidence on the demand side rather than the guidance side. The comparable sales line, the third-quarter print against that 10% to 11% decline guide, and O'Neill's first strategic statement are the three things that carry new information.

Powered by SentiSense - Intelligent Market Analysis