Meta poised to match or surpass Google's search ad revenue by 2026, lifting its stock

Bernstein analysts project that META could overtake GOOGL Search specifically in ad revenue before the end of 2026, crediting Meta's AI-powered Advantage+ ad tools. The call is narrow: a search-versus-search comparison, not a claim that Meta's total ad business has overtaken all of Google's advertising.

The case rests on how close the two have gotten: Meta's ad revenue grew 27% to roughly $59.4 billion in Q2, a gap of only about $3.9 billion from Google Search's tally, per Yahoo Finance, with Meta capturing nearly half of every incremental digital ad dollar spent that quarter.

That is a different measure from a widely cited eMarketer forecast dated April 2026, which projected Meta's total worldwide net ad revenue overtaking Google's total ad revenue for the full year, $243.46 billion versus $239.54 billion. That figure spans all of Google's ad businesses (Search, its publisher network, and YouTube), distinct from Bernstein's search-only comparison made months later.

Separately, Meta shares have risen in recent sessions on catalysts unrelated to either ad-revenue thesis: a roughly $16.7 billion multistate legal settlement over child-safety claims and an analyst price-target increase to $860, per Motley Fool and Investing.com, not anticipation of a Google search crossover.

One prediction piece, from The Motley Fool, separately argues Meta stock could reclaim its August 2025 all-time closing high of $790 before 2029, built on Meta's own ad growth rather than the Google crossover narrative.

Investors should watch whether the gap versus Google Search keeps narrowing next quarter, and treat the search-specific and total-ad-revenue comparisons as separate data points, not corroborating evidence for the same claim.

Related Stocks

• META
• GOOGL