Michael Burry Warns Market Calm May Signal Trouble Ahead

Michael Burry has expanded a set of short positions across the AI infrastructure complex, and paired it with a warning that the market's unusual calm is itself the signal. His disclosed bearish bets now span NVDA, PLTR, ORCL, Nebius, and Caterpillar.

The specifics matter more than the names. Burry shorted Nebius at $211.77 and Oracle at $144.63, describing both trades as "like shooting fish in a barrel." He added to Palantir puts expiring in December 2026 and March 2027 and shorted more Palantir stock at $175. On Nvidia he increased put positions expiring in December 2026 and June 2027 with strikes in the low $100s, and has publicly criticized Nvidia's $500 billion financing arrangement with Wall Street firms for its AI projects, arguing the structure recreates debt dynamics that contributed to the 2008 crisis.

Separately he flagged a 182-session calm streak on Wall Street as a marker of complacency. The common thread across the positions is not a view that AI demand is fake. It is a view that companies borrowing billions today are underwriting a level of AI demand years out that may not arrive on the schedule the debt assumes.

The positions have not worked so far. Nebius and Palantir have both rallied since the disclosures, with Palantir up roughly 30% after strong earnings, which is the practical caveat on reading a 13F as a timing signal. A quarterly filing shows positions as of a past date, discloses puts at notional rather than net exposure, and says nothing about hedges held against them.

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