Micron Forecasts $50 B Q4 Revenue Amid Strong Memory Demand but Faces Earnings Skepticism

MU has guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion, with gross margin of approximately 86% and GAAP diluted EPS of $30.73 plus or minus $1.00. That follows a third quarter in which Micron reported $41.46 billion of revenue and $24.67 of diluted EPS at an 84.6% gross margin. For scale, the same quarter a year earlier produced $23.86 billion, and the year before that $9.30 billion. This is a memory cycle without a modern precedent.

One detail the headline number hides: fiscal Q4 2026 is a 14-week quarter, so the raw sequential jump from $41.46 billion to $50.0 billion overstates the underlying growth rate. Adjusted for the extra week, sequential growth is closer to 12%. The guide is also margin expansion rather than margin stability, moving from 84.6% actual to roughly 86% guided, which is where most of the incremental EPS comes from.

SentiSense data has MU trading at $1,096.16, up 5.0%, with an analyst mean target of $1,515.00 across 46 analysts and a confirmed report date of September 30 after the close against a consensus EPS estimate of $31.27. That consensus sits slightly above the midpoint of Micron's own non-GAAP guide of $31.00, so the bar the market is actually holding the company to is a modest beat rather than an in-line print.

The skeptical case in the cited coverage is worth reading precisely. The bearish preview does not argue that Micron will miss its guide, and it contains no revenue, EPS or margin figures at all. Its argument is about positioning: after a run of this size into the print, a sell-the-news reaction is possible even on a beat. That is a different risk from a demand or pricing risk, and conflating the two would misread the setup. What to watch on September 30 is the fiscal 2027 first-quarter guide and whether gross margin holds near 86%, since the entire earnings step-up rests on it.