Micron reclaims $1,000 before Sept. 30 earnings as RBC holds a $1,500 target

MU rose 3.92% to $1,015.80 on September 18, reclaiming the $1,000 level it had lost a week earlier, as investors positioned ahead of fiscal fourth-quarter results due September 30 after the close. Our earnings calendar has the date confirmed, with a consensus estimate of $31.14 per share.

The sell-side case rests on an unusually long memory cycle rather than a single quarter. RBC analyst Srini Pajjuri maintains an Outperform rating and a $1,500 price target, arguing the DRAM upcycle is now in its twelfth quarter against eight to nine quarters in the 2014 and 2018 cycles, with five to six more plausible and supply growth muted into late 2027. That target is not an outlier: SentiSense analyst data puts the mean target at $1,513.11 across 45 analysts, in a band running from $361 to $2,200, with 45 buy ratings against four holds and no sells. Readers should treat any figure near $1,000 as the stock's trading level rather than an analyst target, a distinction several retail outlets have blurred this week.

The operating numbers behind the rating are large. Over the first nine months of fiscal 2026 Micron reported revenue of $79 billion, up 203% year over year, and net income of $47 billion against $5.3 billion in the prior-year period, at a 72.60% gross margin. Growth is expected to decelerate sharply, from a forecast 247% in fiscal 2026 to 88% in fiscal 2027, which is the crux of the peak-margin debate running through analyst notes into this print. The shares trade at a trailing 21 times earnings and sit about 22% below the $1,255 intraday high set earlier this year; measured against the $1,213.37 closing record the gap is closer to 19%.

Two specific items are worth watching on the call. The first is capital return: $2.16 billion remains on the existing buyback authorization, and commentary about expanding it would speak to management's own read on the cycle. Micron already lifted its quarterly dividend from $0.115 to $0.15, a 30% increase, though at a 1.1% payout ratio the dividend is not yet a meaningful part of the story, and talk of a Nvidia-style step change remains speculation rather than anything the company has guided to. The second is competitive: China's CXMT lifted its DRAM share to 10% from 4% a year ago, but U.S. export controls keep it out of top-tier HBM, so the near-term pressure lands on commodity DRAM pricing and on SK Hynix more directly than on Micron's highest-margin AI memory line.