Microsoft Jumps 8% as Steady FY26 Capex Reassures, but FY27 Guide Points to $255B

MSFT shares rose roughly 8% after fiscal fourth-quarter results, and the proximate cause was capital expenditure discipline rather than the earnings beat itself . Microsoft left its fiscal 2026 capex forecast unchanged at a moment when GOOGL had raised its 2026 guide and META was tracking toward the top of its range, and investors rewarded the contrast.

The operating results supported the move. Azure grew 43% in constant currency and annual Azure revenue crossed $100 billion for the first time. Paid Copilot seats passed 30 million, the fastest quarterly seat growth in the product's history, and CFO Amy Hood put total AI business annualized recurring revenue at $37 billion, up 123% year over year.

The relief rally deserves a qualifier that the initial reaction glossed over. Microsoft held the current-year number but guided fiscal 2027 capital expenditure to $255 billion to $260 billion, roughly 35% above fiscal 2026's approximately $190 billion. The spending is deferred, not avoided, and the market's read that Microsoft has broken from the AI capex arms race does not survive contact with the forward guide.

That sets up the question for the next several quarters: whether AI revenue at $37 billion ARR and growing 123% can outrun a capex base rising 35%, and whether the depreciation schedule from this build-out starts to compress operating margins before the revenue catches up. Watch Azure growth deceleration, Copilot seat expansion versus per-seat pricing, and the FY27 capex phasing detail.

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