Nebius Beats Q3 Revenue Estimates but Shares Slide as 2026 Capex Rises to $27 Billion and 2027 Outlook Disappoints

NBIS reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million before the open on Thursday, November 12, ahead of the LSEG consensus of $907.5 million and up 571% from a year earlier. Revenue rose 68% from $582.3 million in the second quarter, and adjusted EBITDA climbed to $465.8 million from $236.2 million. The company posted a net loss of $37.5 million, or 13 cents per share, compared with a loss of $119.6 million, or 50 cents per share, a year earlier.

The guidance is what moved the stock. Nebius raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $27 billion, above its prior range of $20 billion to $25 billion and the FactSet expectation of $23.85 billion, and put 2027 capex at $40 billion to $45 billion against FactSet's $28.77 billion. Its first 2027 outlook calls for revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion, which the company described as reflecting "a conservative approach to the pace of our build-out," against a FactSet estimate of $12.09 billion. Nebius also pointed to the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion 2026 revenue range (Zetik), citing Microsoft capacity deliveries slipping into the second quarter of 2027 and an execution problem at third-party partner DataOne.

Shares had jumped 19% on Wednesday into the report, with options pricing a move of about 20%. On Thursday the stock fell 10% after the release, and the selloff deepened as Nvidia's CEO resignation hit AI infrastructure names; SentiSense's 15-minute-delayed data showed NBIS at $131.37 in late-morning trading, down 15.1% on the day.

Management pointed to demand signals that cut against the cautious guidance: more than $12 billion of new contracts signed since the start of the third quarter, annual recurring revenue of $6.4 billion at the end of September, and customer prepayments covering 100% of the capex tied to third-quarter deals, up from 50% to 60% in the second quarter. The question for investors is whether prepayments and contracted backlog can fund a capex plan that now runs well ahead of Street models, and whether the delayed capacity lands on schedule in 2027.