Huber Research double-downgrades Netflix to Underweight as KeyBanc trims its target ahead of Q3 results

Huber Research's Craig Huber double-downgraded NFLX to Underweight from Overweight on October 13 and cut his 12-month price target to $70 from $85. He argued the stock is now fairly valued, citing a decline of about 5% in viewing per subscriber, Netflix's plan to move to annual engagement reports from early 2027, limited room for further US price increases, a reported 5% headcount cut and concern about acquisitions.

On the same day KeyBanc cut its target to $85 from $92, citing currency headwinds in its 2026 to 2028 revenue and earnings estimates, but kept its Overweight rating. That makes one rating downgrade, not several: Investor's Business Daily also reported a sell-rated downgrade ahead of earnings, most likely the same Huber call. Earlier cuts came in September, when Wells Fargo moved to Underweight with a $57 target and HSBC to Hold with a $76 target.

The prices are post-split figures after Netflix's 10-for-1 split in November 2025. Shares closed at $70.46 on October 13, roughly at Huber's target and not far above the 52-week low of $65.08, against a 52-week high of $124.86. SentiSense consensus data still shows an average target of $92.55 across 45 analysts, and a Simply Wall St community estimate puts fair value at $82, about 14% above the price.

The next catalyst is close: Netflix reports third-quarter results on October 20 after the close, with consensus around $0.82 to $0.83 of EPS on about $12.86 billion of revenue. Engagement trends and any commentary on pricing headroom will speak directly to the concerns behind Huber's downgrade.