Newmont Beats Q3 Estimates on Record Free Cash Flow, but Shares Slide

NEM reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.20 a share after Thursday's close, ahead of analyst estimates of $1.95 to $2.05 depending on the survey. Revenue rose 15% to $6.36 billion, and the company generated $2.8 billion of operating cash flow and a record $1.9 billion of free cash flow. Adjusted net income was $2.3 billion; reported net income was $2.5 billion, or $2.35 a share, according to the company's filing.

Price did the heavy lifting. Newmont's average realized gold price was $4,317 an ounce, up from $3,539 a year earlier though $97 below the prior quarter, while gold production fell to 1.30 million ounces from 1.42 million. By-product all-in sustaining costs fell 10% to $1,454 an ounce. Copper output at Cadia rebounded 35% from the prior quarter to 23,000 tonnes after an earlier disruption.

Newmont kept its 2026 target of 5.3 million attributable ounces, which implies a stronger fourth quarter, and said 2027 production should rise by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage, with development capital about $500 million higher than this year. The Red Chris block cave in Canada is moving toward a full-funds investment decision in early 2027, at a development cost of $4.2 to $4.8 billion. Newmont will also pay Barrick $1.95 billion in the fourth quarter under an amended Nevada Gold Mines agreement, and management said it is not bidding for Northern Star.

The stock reaction was negative despite the beat. Shares closed Thursday at $114.11, down 2.62% after a Freedom Broker downgrade, bounced about 1.5% after hours on the results, then fell 4.6% on Friday to about $108.87, per SentiSense price data. Citigroup raised its price target to $140 from $125. What to watch: whether price keeps outrunning lower volumes, fourth-quarter delivery against guidance, and the Red Chris decision.