NY Fed Survey Shows Rising 1-Year Inflation Expectations Amid Job Fears as BLS Omits Annual CPI Data

The New York Fed's October Survey of Consumer Expectations showed median 1-year inflation expectations at 3.91%, up from 3.90% and above the 3.78% forecast, while 3-year expectations held at 3.3% and 5-year at 3.0%. Expectations of rising unemployment reached their highest level since April 2020, which Bloomberg summarized as inflation expectations essentially unchanged alongside the worst unemployment outlook since 2020.

Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will leave year-over-year headline and core figures out of Tuesday's October CPI report, because price data for October 2025 are missing after last year's government shutdown. Monthly figures will still be released, but annual real earnings growth will also be unavailable.

Forecasters expect a cooler monthly print. One consensus calls for headline CPI to rise 0.23% month over month and core 0.22%, down from September's 0.65% and 0.33%, while another tally puts expectations at 0.3% headline and 0.2% core. Bank forecasts for headline range from 0.19% at Morgan Stanley to 0.28% at Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs is lowest on core at 0.16%.

The data land at a sensitive moment for policy. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that he is leaning toward a December rate hike and that a 50 basis point move should be considered if inflation runs hotter than expected. Without annual comparisons, markets will lean harder on the monthly core reading and on survey measures like this one to judge whether inflation is cooling.