Occidental Petroleum Jumps Following Analyst Upgrade and Crude Rally

OXY shares climbed roughly 4% on July 8 after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock two notches to Outperform from Underperform and raised its price target to $65 from $58, citing Occidental's lower leverage and improving cash generation. The move bucked a broader market trend, with peers XOM and CVX lagging behind on the same day.

Evercore said Occidental's deleveraging and structurally lower operating costs have reshaped its free cash flow profile, positioning the company to better capitalize on crude fundamentals. The firm projects Occidental's free cash flow per share to grow roughly 8% annually through 2030 at a flat $75 WTI oil price, with a potential resumption of share buybacks later in the decade.

The upgrade coincided with a rise in crude oil prices tied to renewed Iran-related supply concerns, which lifted the broader energy sector, though Occidental's outsized move suggests investors are crediting the balance-sheet improvement specifically rather than just the oil-price tailwind.

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