OPEC+ Decides to Hold November Oil Output Targets Amid Middle East Tensions

The seven core members of OPEC+ agreed at a brief online meeting on Sunday, October 4, to keep their oil production ceilings unchanged for November. The group, made up of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, reiterated its "collective commitment to achieve full conformity" and will meet again on November 1.

November quotas stand at 10.478 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.949 million for Russia, 4.431 million for Iraq, 2.676 million for Kuwait, 1.628 million for Kazakhstan, 1.007 million for Algeria and 0.841 million for Oman, about 31 million barrels per day combined. Those ceilings are largely not binding. According to Reuters, the seven pumped about 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July but about 5 million bpd below pre-war levels in February, and about 2 million bpd of production cuts remain in place. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the hold was in line with market expectations, adding that "despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota."

The shortfall reflects the war rather than policy. The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally closed since hostilities between the US and Iran began on February 28, IndexBox reported, and Reuters said Gulf exports have fluctuated between 60% and 80% of normal levels. Brent has climbed above $100 a barrel from roughly $73 before the war and ended Friday at about $102. In their statement, members also flagged concern about attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged facilities is costly and takes a long time.

Reuters reported that policy changes are unlikely before 2027 because the group's production capacity review has been delayed. Watch the November 1 meeting, the monitoring committee session on November 29, and whether Hormuz flows recover enough to bring actual output closer to the ceilings.