Potential Tesla-SpaceX Merger Gains Momentum, Investors Speculate

Speculation builds that a massive merger between Tesla and SpaceX may be closer than investors think, driven by increased connectivity between the companies and predictions from analysts like Dan Ives.

Analyst speculation around a TSLA Tesla and SpaceX combination has intensified ahead of SpaceX's anticipated IPO, with Wedbush's Dan Ives stating publicly that there is an 80% or higher probability the two companies merge within the next year . Ives frames the deal as a "holy grail" move that would let Elon Musk consolidate control over electric vehicles, space, and AI infrastructure under a single entity. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell added fuel to the speculation in June 2026, publicly noting that a post-IPO merger "might make Elon Musk's life a little easier" and acknowledging synergies between the two businesses. The companies are already co-invested: SPCX SpaceX has sold approximately $506 million in Megapack batteries and roughly $103 million in Cybertruck orders to Tesla, and both are co-investors in "Terafab," a joint semiconductor facility with Intel carrying an estimated first-phase cost of $55 billion.

Not everyone is convinced a deal makes sense. Oppenheimer analysts pushed back in a research note, arguing that keeping the two companies structurally separate better serves Musk's long-term AI ambitions. Their core argument: maintaining two independent public market currencies gives Musk diversified, flexible access to capital that a single merged entity would sacrifice. A combined company would also face a more complex regulatory path, given the national security sensitivities around SpaceX's launch and satellite contracts.

A combined Tesla-SpaceX entity has been estimated at roughly $3.4 trillion in market value, which would rank among the largest companies ever created. Investors should treat current speculation as analyst opinion, not confirmed deal activity. No merger terms, timelines, or board approvals have been disclosed by either company, and Musk has not publicly confirmed merger talks. The key near-term catalyst to watch is the SpaceX IPO itself: its pricing, structure, and shareholder composition will shape the practical feasibility of any combination .