Robinhood Logs Record Equity Trading Day as Prediction Markets Outgrow Crypto

HOOD recorded its highest-ever equity trading day, Chief Brokerage Officer Steve Quirk said at a Wolfe Research event, with volume on the Thursday before the event significantly exceeding prior peaks set in 2020 and 2021. Quirk described customers as "cautiously aggressive", often buying after market declines, while cautioning that he could not predict how they would respond to a prolonged downturn. The shares closed up 4% at $84.58 on Wednesday, per SentiSense market data; TIKR put the move at 5%.

The comments put fresh focus on how Robinhood's revenue mix is shifting. In the third quarter, prediction markets brought in $173 million, a sixfold increase from a year earlier, while crypto trading revenue fell 55% to $120 million, and Robinhood Chain generated $26 million in its first quarter on mainnet. Total revenue reached a record $1.42 billion, up 12%, though diluted earnings per share fell to $0.51 from $0.61, per StockTitan's earnings summary.

Quirk said non-sports prediction activity has doubled, without giving a time frame, and pointed to contracts on economic indicators and company KPIs, including KPI options being launched with Cboe. He acknowledged that sports contracts are the main regulatory flashpoint and said Robinhood prepares for a scenario in which they are unavailable. More than 200,000 customers use its agentic AI tools, still a small share of a base of more than 28 million, and average account balances have risen to about $15,000 from about $3,000.

What to watch: whether the record activity carries into fourth-quarter volumes, regulatory decisions on sports event contracts, and progress toward the company's target of more than 20% net deposit growth, which Quirk said it was close to reaching, with October its third-best deposit month. The Motley Fool noted 26 of 32 analysts rate the stock a buy at about 28x forward earnings.