SpaceX CFO Targets $100B Revenue Run Rate by Year-End as Lockup Expirations Loom

SentiSense · Published Sep 21, 2026, 2:20 PM ET · Updated Sep 28, 2026, 2:45 AM ET

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen says the company is on track for a $100 billion annual recurring revenue run rate by year-end, with Elon Musk saying AI revenue should soon eclipse the rest of the business. Against that, last year's revenue was about $18.7 billion, the stock trades near 20 times 2027 forecast sales, and lockup expirations on September 24, October 9 and October 24 could add hundreds of millions of shares to a float that started at about 4% of the company.

SpaceX (SPCX) CFO Bret Johnsen says the company is on track to reach a $100 billion annual recurring revenue run rate by year-end, and Elon Musk has gone further, saying AI revenue should eclipse the rest of the business by the end of this month. The longer-term plan leans on Starship launching orbital data centers from late next year and scaling through 2028, which would put launch, connectivity and compute under one roof.

The gap between that target and reported results is wide. SpaceX's revenue last year was about $18.7 billion and the company was still losing money; Wall Street forecasts $44.8 billion this year and $108.3 billion next year. Even if those numbers land, the Motley Fool calculates the stock trades at nearly 20 times forward sales on 2027 revenue. After going public, SpaceX also issued $25 billion of bonds with coupons from 5.35% to 6.65%, and the Fed's latest rate increase raises the cost of funding the next wave of compute and launch sites.

Share supply is the nearer-term issue. SpaceX floated only about 4% of the company in its IPO, and lockups are now rolling off: another tranche is scheduled for September 24, up to 328.4 million shares become available on both October 9 and October 24, and up to 1.3 billion more can be sold after third-quarter results. Musk himself is locked up until next June. Barron's separately argued the stock could get a boost from the Nasdaq-100's quarterly rebalancing. Shares were up about 1.2% at $153.61 in late-morning trading Tuesday, per SentiSense's delayed quote.

What to watch: whether the lockup dates bring heavy insider selling, whether third-quarter results show the AI business approaching the run rate management describes, and progress on Starship toward the orbital data center timeline.