SpaceX Stock Plummets 50% Post-IPO High, Faces Risks Ahead

SPCX shares have fallen roughly 50% from their post-IPO high, trading near $113 against a peak of about $226 reached days after the stock opened at $150 . CNBC calculates the drawdown has erased market capitalization equivalent to an entire Tesla . The decline reflects post-IPO profit taking, recent launch setbacks and a broader cooling in AI-linked valuations [doc1, doc8].

Two dates in early August now dominate the setup. The company reports its first post-IPO quarter on August 4, with estimates around $6.9 billion of revenue and a loss of $0.28 per share . Two days later, on August 6, the first tranche of the IPO lockup expires, releasing as many as 911.5 million shares, a figure that exceeds the current public float . Elon Musk's own holdings stay locked until June 2027, so the August supply comes from early investors and employees rather than from the founder.

The segment split explains why the print matters more than usual. Starlink generated $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income in 2025, a genuinely profitable business. The recently acquired artificial intelligence segment lost $6.4 billion from operations over the same year and a further $2.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone, which is what turns a profitable satellite operator into a consolidated loss-maker.

The bull case rests on Starship flights running clean and Starlink profitability scaling faster than the AI segment burns cash. One widely circulated Motley Fool analysis extrapolates from historical post-IPO drawdown patterns to a roughly $135 share price for SPCX by June 2027 ; that is a historical-pattern extrapolation rather than a published analyst price target, and should be read as such. The nearer-term variable is simply how much of that 911.5 million share overhang actually comes to market.

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