Tesla Shares Slip Over 1.5% After BNP Paribas Target Cut as Semi Ramp Fails to Excite

TSLA closed at $372.11 on September 25, down 1.54%, as analyst commentary overshadowed plans to ramp Semi truck production. The stock fell on a day when the S&P 500 rose 0.51%, and EV peers moved the other way: RIVN closed up 1.18% and GM up 2.56%.

BNP Paribas Exane lowered its price target from $280 to $268 and kept its underperform rating, a target cut rather than a rating change. UBS countered with a $385 price target. MarketBeat puts the consensus rating at "hold" with a consensus price target of $411.89. Separately, CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares at an average price of $360.13, for a total of $938,498.78.

On the Semi, Tesla plans to produce 50,000 trucks annually, and some analysts don't think that is enough to move the needle. MarketWatch reported that the launch failed to excite investors and that Tesla's initial Semi targets remain unclear. Tesla closed the Nevada Semi event with a Roadster teaser; "We can't have a Semi event without the Roadster," engineering executive Lars Moravy said, ahead of an October 1 reveal event in Waco, Texas.

The bigger debate is whether Tesla becomes an AI company. It trades at a trailing PE of 346 with negative free cash flow, while FSD subscriptions grew 56% to 1.48 million in Q2, and CFO Taneja confirmed 2026 capex will exceed $25 billion before AI revenue materializes.

What to watch: the October 1 Roadster event, any concrete Semi production figures, and further analyst target revisions.