Tesla Stock Surges 5%, Hitting $400, Ahead of Q2 Delivery Report

Tesla stock rose 5% to reclaim the $400 mark, ahead of its Q2 delivery report. Analysts have turned bullish about Tesla's Q2 deliveries, with Barclays and Morgan Stanley predicting growth in China and Europe. The stock's rally is driven by a combination of safety news and growth in AI.

TSLA shares climbed roughly 5% to reclaim the $400 level on June 29, closing near $401.84, as Wall Street grew more constructive heading into the company's second-quarter delivery report, due on or around July 2.

The rally was led by an unusual run of pre-print upgrades. Morgan Stanley lifted its Q2 delivery estimate to about 413,000 units (from 373,000) while keeping a $415 price target and an Equal-weight rating, and Barclays modeled roughly 418,000 deliveries, both well above the consensus near 406,000. Analysts tied the optimism to recovering demand in China and Europe even as the U.S. market stays soft, pointing to a high-single-digit year-over-year delivery increase.

The print itself is the near-term catalyst: a beat versus the ~406,000 bar would validate the bullish repositioning, while a miss would expose a stock that has just rerated on expectations rather than results. Investors are also weighing Tesla's AI and self-driving narrative against lingering caution on its robotaxi and FSD timelines.